Tuesday, March 25, 2008

On Climate Change

I'll start with my official position on climate change: there is no evidence that whatever climate change is occurring is being caused by human activity. That's right--none. I feel comfortable saying that because the vast majority of purported evidence is in the form of computer simulations. I'm a software developer by trade, and I can tell you that a computer simulation is good for extrapolating more data based on given assumptions. The accuracy of the simulation depends on the accuracy of the assumptions, so using a computer simulation to prove a scientific theory is circular reasoning, because the thing being "proven" is built into the assumptions.

On the other hand, it's quite possible that there is climate change, and that it is being caused by human activity. But not just carbon dioxide, and not just by activity. Those of you who have read "The Secret" or any of the other books that essentially say the same thing will remember that ideas that are focused on tend to manifest themselves in the physical world sooner or later. For the last 40 years or more, a small but significant portion of the population has been dedicated to the idea that the planet is going to hell in a handbasket, and that it's all our fault (or at least the big evil corporations' fault).

There does seem to be an emerging positive movement, and that's exactly what is needed. We don't just need to switch to hybrids; we need to change our minds.

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